Birthgap is a vital movie about plummeting fertility rates. Director Stephen J Shaw weaves data with interviews he conducted around the world. It was his labor of love for a decade He coins several terms and frames visualizations to accentuate the dire situation. Many inconvenient truths emerge. The most stark is that no civilization in history has ever turned around falling birth rates.
The film begins with a dark quote from Paul Ehrlich. 50 years ago, he suggested that the government should tell you how many children you can have and throw you in jail if you have too many. He made the catastrophically incorrect prediction that there will never be 7 billion people. History will view him as an anti-human monster with a body count rivaling Mao, Stalin, Hitler, and Sanger. In contrast, Elon Musk is shown sounding the alarm about the population decline that Ehrlich helped engineer.
The birth gap is the delta between how many babies are born and how many adults turn 50 in a year. If the numbers are equal, that means a population will remain stable. However, many developed nations like Italy are facing 50% gaps. In 20 years, there will be half the amount of new workers relative to new pensioners they will need to support.
Societal half life and population decay map out how quickly nation will contract based on various levels below-replacement fertility rates. Most of Europe and East Asia are facing extreme collapses. South Korea’s population will halve in a generation. The death spiral accelerates when more tax burdens are placed on dwindling young people to pay for retirees pension benefits, instead of raising their own families.
Today, three quarters of the world’s population lives in countries with below replacement fertility rates. Most of the birth rate decline can be attributed to unplanned childlessness. The fertility rates of people who start families have remained the same. However, the proportion of childless people has grown substantially. In 2007, only 1 in 7 Americans were childless. A decade later, it grew to 1 in 3.
For many nations, the first shock occurred in the mid-1970s. The oil crisis led to economic hardships that caused many families to delay having kids, which meant fewer babies or none at all. Childlessness increased further in the wake of the late-2000s Global Financial Crisis. Subverted culture and education demoralized several generations of young people into not wanting kids or waiting too long.
The saddest parts of the documentary were the interviews Stephen conducted with people who have realized too late that they were lied to. Lonely old women and men shared regrets and grief in their childlessness. Younger couples made excuses about needing more time for careers, self-actualization, and saving more money. Meanwhile, schools are closing and entire towns are disappearing.
Fertility doctors sounded the alarm about the increased risks of fetal loss for older mothers. The vitality curve has flattened as men and women are out of sync with their prime reproductive windows. Yet Ehrlich’s acolytes continue to infuse anti-natal indoctrination into schools. Even many developing countries across India, Africa, and the Middle East are facing birth gaps now. Perhaps the opening scene of Idiocracy wasn’t fully accurate.
Perhaps a sequel to Birthgap can spend more time exploring solutions. Several countries like Norway, Italy, and Denmark launched government campaigns encouraging people to have more babies. Japan encouraged childless people to spend time with young families to answer questions, allay fears, and re-normalize the desire for having children. None of them have seen sustained success.
All proposed solutions will be controversial and reviled by the left. People have kids because they want to have kids. They do it because they love bringing new life into our world, nurturing children, growing happy families, passing on their traditions, and glorifying the divine. Babies are miracles from God. This is a spiritual and cultural issue. Anti-natal neuroticism, nihilism, and narcissism must be countered. It’s not rocket science, but it’s an even harder problem to solve than launching rockets into space.
We are living through an unprecedented genetic bottleneck. Those who have children are doing so at the same levels as historical norms. This hearty group of humans who have persevered through the demoralization will repopulate the earth. The future belongs to those who show up. Will you and your ancestors bridge the gap to revitalize humanity?
Here is the full documentary:
For more on pro-natalism:
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Comrades: I made my first speaking appearance at NatalCon last weekend. It was an epic gathering full of great patriots who love their families. Here are my remarks:
The birth rate drop in the 1970’s had little to do with the oil crisis and everything to do with the new availability of birth control pills and abortions.
Speaking of that- where are the statistics on the number of abortions? If a majority of those aborted had come to full term what would the numbers look like?
Globalization is sterilization, and all the greatest enthusiasts of globalization are the most sterile in their thinking.